Poll finds FitzGerald narrowly ahead of Miller in battleground race for Congress

Ed FitzGerald has opened up a small lead over Max Miller, according to latest poll

Challenger Ed FitzGerald has opened a narrow lead over incumbent Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th Congressional District, according to an internal polling memo obtained by this publication, underscoring the competitiveness of a race that national operatives already view as a potential 2026 battleground.

The survey, conducted in early December among 300 likely voters in the district, shows FitzGerald holding a slim advantage over Miller, with a significant share of the electorate still undecided. Sources familiar with the polling describe the contest as fluid but note that the topline numbers place FitzGerald slightly ahead in a district that has leaned Republican in recent cycles.

The same poll indicated that FitzGerald has effectively consolidated support within the Democratic primary field. Among likely Democratic primary voters, he holds a commanding lead over his intra-party challengers and is the only candidate with broad name recognition. Party strategists say that dynamic leaves him well positioned to avoid a prolonged or divisive primary and to pivot early toward the general election.

In the head-to-head matchup against Miller, the memo characterizes FitzGerald’s standing as notable given the district’s recent voting history. Ohio’s 7th has been classified as Republican-leaning, yet it has also been identified by national Democrats as a seat that could flip under the right conditions. The polling suggests that, at least at this stage, FitzGerald is meeting that test by matching — and slightly exceeding — Miller’s level of support.

FitzGerald is a former FBI Special Agent and federal prosecutor who later served as mayor of a Cleveland-area suburb, a background that political observers say lends him credibility with voters looking for experience rooted in law enforcement and local government rather than Washington. Miller, by contrast, is a first-term Republican congressman who previously worked in the Trump White House, a résumé that helped propel him into office but that analysts say can be a liability in a district where voters have shown growing wariness toward nationalized politics and strong ties to former President Donald Trump.

The data points to underlying weaknesses for the incumbent. Miller is performing below expectations among Republican voters for a candidate of his party in the district, according to the memo, while FitzGerald is exceeding typical Democratic performance. Independents appear to be a particular source of strength for the challenger, with FitzGerald holding an advantage among those voters as Miller underperforms.

Respondents across partisan lines expressed dissatisfaction with the current direction of the country, a sentiment that campaign analysts say may be creating an opening for a challenger narrative in 2026. After voters were presented with additional information about both candidates — including biographical material and contrast messaging — support for FitzGerald increased, suggesting room for further growth as the race becomes better defined.

The poll carries a reported margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points. The results provide an early snapshot of a race that is shaping up to be one of the more competitive House contests in the region.

With months remaining before the general election campaign fully takes shape, the memo’s authors emphasize that a large bloc of undecided voters remains in play. Still, the slight edge for FitzGerald, combined with his dominant position in the Democratic primary, signals that the contest against Miller is far from settled and may tighten further as both campaigns escalate their efforts.